How it works
Argue first, release second
Most services sell you one person's opinion. Ours has to survive a second one before it ever reaches your phone.
Build the number blind
Early in the week we each set our own line on the games worth a look: power ratings, injuries, line movement history, pace and situation. We do it separately so neither of us anchors to the other or to the book.
Compare to the market
Then we open the board. A game only stays alive if both of our numbers sit far enough off the market to pay for the vig with room left over. Half a point of theoretical edge is not a bet.
Take opposite sides on purpose
One of us argues the play, the other argues against it. Injury news, weather, travel spots, look-ahead spots, coaching tendencies in the situation. If the case does not survive an hour of that, it does not make the card.
Price it and size it
Survivors get shopped across books. We list the number and book we took, the price ceiling where the value dies, and the unit size, from a one unit lean to a three unit look.
Release early
Cards go out with time to shop. A play you can only get two points worse than we listed is a different play, and we say so when the number moves.
Grade everything
Every play is graded to the number in the write-up, winners and losers alike, and the running record goes out with the next card. No quiet deletions.
Where we look
The angles we lean on
Two leagues, two very different games. We handicap them differently.
NFL
A sharp, efficient market where edges are small and situational. We hunt key number value on spreads, early-week openers before the public arrives, total mispricing on weather and pace mismatches, and coaching tendencies that the number has not caught up to.
College football
A far wider board and far softer numbers, especially away from the top 25. Roster turnover, motivation spots, travel and altitude, tempo mismatches and lines that lag a week behind reality are where the college card earns its keep.
Honest limits
What this is not
This is not a system that beats the book every week, and we will not pretend otherwise. Long seasons include cold stretches that have nothing to do with the quality of the number you took.
- We do not sell locks, and we do not use the word.
- We do not hide losses or repost old winners as new ones.
- We do not tell you to chase a bad week with bigger bets.
- We do not accept, place or hold money for wagers.
What you are paying for is a documented process, an honest record and a card you can follow without guessing what we meant.
A play, start to finish
Sample format
| Play | Home team -3 (-110) |
|---|---|
| Our number | -5.5, value ends at -4.5 |
| Size | 2 units |
| Why | Two-sentence case: the matchup edge and the situational angle. |
| Risk | One sentence on what makes us wrong. |
| Graded | To -3, the number listed above. |
Every card follows this shape, so it reads the same in week 1 and week 15.
See it for a week
Take a week, read the write-ups, grade us yourself. Forty-nine dollars, stop whenever you want. That is the fairest test there is.